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Searching for a statistical edge

By Amelia Rayno, Star Tribune, 05/16/11, 7:59PM CDT

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Andover reads deeper into stats, creates winning atmosphere


Andover manager, Don Gawreluk, marks the tally sheet during a recent game with Osseo. Marlin Levison, Star Tribune

Last year, while Andover baseball coach Don Gawreluk was watching a Texas Rangers playoff game on TV, he couldn’t help but notice a large banner pinned across the inside of the dugout heralding what the organization considered a successful at-bat.

“They wanted people to know it could be a lot of things,” Gawreluk said, “instead of what you see from numbers.”

The concept struck a chord with Gawreluk and this spring he set out to essentially instigate some new numbers for his team — namely, their own interpretation of a quality at-bat.

But the Huskies coach is not alone. Across the Twin Cities, high school coaches are reacting to a baseball world that is becoming increasingly analytical, and they have begun searching for statistics that fit their needs. While coaches have their limitations — many have other jobs, families and low budgets for staff to help them calculate advanced statistics — several have chosen one or two metrics to latch onto because they highly value the results.

Aside from quality at-bats, coaches are looking at other things — individualized pitching goals such as first-pitch, off-speed and fastball strike percentage, percentage of times the pitcher is in a particular count, batting average on balls in play and batting average in various pitch counts — as tools for building players’ confidence and helping them better understand the game, and a means to exercise some control in an uncontrollable game.

“We’re talking about what we can do to make the player feel as confident as they possibly can,” Minnetonka coach Paul Twenge said. “That will breed success for them, and that lends itself to a successful outcome for the team.”

Us and Them

Next to the lineup chart in the Andover dugout hangs a simple poster that says “Us” and “Them” at the top. It’s there every game, home or away. After each at-bat that fills Gawreluk’s criteria for “quality” — a hit, a walk, a hit by pitch, an eight-pitch at-bat, reaching on an error, a sacrifice, moving a runner over or scoring a runner — someone on the Huskies bench will scribble a mark on the appropriate side. For Gawreluk, the theory behind the marks is as plain as the poster itself.

“We try to keep it simple, just go up there and do your job,” he said. “And your job is to have a quality at-bat. I can tell the ebb and flow of the game, just by taking a quick glance at the chart.”

The sermon he’s preaching has rung true: Entering this week, with the exception of one game, every time Andover’s offense has netted at least 15 quality at-bats in a game (their goal), they have won.

“It’s somewhat common sense — if we do this, we will win — but this year really shows it,” Andover junior Patrick O’Donnell said. “When you get a lot of tallies, you come out on top.”

And statistical proof such as that, many coaches agree, has helped further disentangle the game for their players.

“Baseball is not a simple game,” said Phil Almeroth, coach at Legacy Christian Academy in Anoka, who keeps track of “positive at-bats,” batting average on balls in play and pitching goal percentages. “This can help [your players] learn the game and it will reinforce the philosophy. It’s not just a number — there’s a reason behind it.”

Coaches say they often use these statistics as numerical justification of what they have their players do in practice.

“There’s no need for them to say ‘Why are we doing this?’” said Lakeville North pitching coach Eric Gassman, who keeps an elaborate spreadsheet charting numerous pitching goals. “They can’t argue with statistics. Instead of saying, ‘Hey, your off-speed [pitch] wasn’t so good,’ you can say ‘Last time out you threw 29 off-speed pitches, but just 15 were strikes.’”

Furthermore, defining a quality at-bat can better outline goals for players that aren’t likely to accumulate high averages or extra-base hits.

“A lot of guys in the eighth, ninth spot, maybe they feel their role is a little nebulous,” Gawreluk said. “Shoot, this gives a pretty clear definition of what I’d like out of them.”

Building confidence

A year ago, Minnetonka’s Twenge had a bone to pick with his critics.

“People were saying, ‘[The team is] not hitting,’” he said. “Well, I got mad and I came up with a chart and said, ‘We’re going to find out.’”

What he found startled him. The Skippers were, in fact, putting bat on ball, but they weren’t making great contact. Twenge attributed this — at least in part — to confidence issues.

So he came up with a system. For every player, he went through and found their average per pitch in the pitch count. For instance: Perhaps his leadoff guy was hitting .500 when he swung at the first pitch, .700 on the second and third pitch and .300 on the fourth, but was averaging below .200 for any pitch after. It could be just the opposite for, say, a batter in the No. 7 spot.

He shared it with players and sure enough, Twenge said, he saw improvement in hitting — while also watching his players become more aware of their batting roles and able to identify what types of pitches they were seeing, because they were so tuned in.

In general, coaches say statistics they are utilizing help them give a positive boost to players in a game full of negative reinforcement.

“Lots of times, they would be out there thinking ‘I hope I don’t screw up,’” Gawreluk said.

Added Totino-Grace coach Mike Smith: “Everybody’s seen guys pound balls all over the place and end up with zero hits, or nub three in a row and end up 3-for-3. … You can’t always control the outcome, but you can sure control a lot of things leading up to it. So we look at that.”

While many coaches are getting more involved in new statistical measures, they are quick to point out the often rudimentary nature of their calculations.

“You’ve got to understand, there are a lot of holes in this,” Twenge said of his pitch-count sequencing. “If I was doing my master’s degree on frequency of successful hitting in relationship to pitch sequence, I’d be shot to death.”

Others say they would like to track more statistics, but don’t have the resources. But despite the shortcomings, many coaches have found the results beneficial enough to find one or two things to which they cling.

“If coaches are valuing it, then they’ll do it,” Gawreluk said, noting the quality at-bat poster is now part of the team’s culture. “You’ve just got to believe in what you’re preaching and hope when you’re looking in the eyes of the kids … you see the wheels spinning.”


A tally sheet hangs in the Andover dugout. Marlin Levison, Star Tribune

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